The website of Forbes has recently published the article of author Ed Fuller with the title “Vietnam is ready to become the next economic tiger of Asia.”
Like South Korea, Taiwan and China, Vietnam is having many base advantages.
According to the economic report till August of 2016, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Vietnam has reached a record level in 2015 and this year could be higher. Only the first half of 2016, FDI into Vietnam reached 11.3 billion USD, increased by 105% over the same period last year although in the context of the global economy is moving very slowly.
Since 1990, the average economic growth of Vietnam reached 7% per year, just behind China. This growth has brought Vietnam from a poor country into the country with average income level of the world. If Vietnam continues to keep the growth rate of 7% per years in the next 10 years, the Vietnam economy will grow just like China and many other economic tigers in Asia.
Vietnam now has more than 92 million people, mostly young (average age is 30.7 years old) and skilled. Moreover, the spending from the national budget for education is around 6.3% of GDP, higher than the average of most low and middle income countries. In the global rankings, 15-year-old children of Vietnam have regularly defeated children in the United States and Britain in math and science competitions. This is an advantage for the factory in Vietnam that requiring workers to have the ability to operate complicated machinery.
Another positive point is the advantage of geographical location, while Vietnam has the border with China, becoming a competitive advantage compared to other countries when Vietnam is closer to the production centers in Southern China with the transportation system connected by road and sea. Furthermore, the rising price of labor wages in China makes Vietnam becoming alternative destination for businesses to move their factory to locations where costs are lower.
Simultaneously, Vietnam is a member of various trade agreements. According to The Economist, Vietnam will be the greatest beneficiary of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP – an agreement of 12 countries including the US and Japan). Moreover, Vietnam also signed other trade agreements with the EU and South Korea.
Besides, nowadays, tourism is playing an increasingly important role in the development of Vietnam. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), in 2015, tourism has contributed more than 16 billion USD to the Vietnam’s economy, equivalent to about 9.3% of GDP.
With the goal of attracting 55 million tourists (both domestic and foreign) each year until 2030, Vietnam has announced the visa exemption policy for visitors from 22 countries in Europe and Asia, including the UK, France, Germany, Russia and 9 ASEAN member countries.
Also, a lot of infrastructure and major transport projects have been planned to implement in the next 15 years, including 7 new tourism development areas, the Hai Phong, Quang Ninh waterways and the railway connecting to China’s Yunnan province. Simultaneously, the upgrading of infrastructure in the area is expected to go further, thanks to a series of bilateral agreements that have been signed with Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar to realize joint tourism initiatives.
Analysts have predicted that the supply of hotel rooms will increase in the next 3 years. The CBRE real estate consulting firm has forecasted that the number of hotel rooms in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi will grow by 8% per year until 2018. The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) also forecasted that the growth rate of the industry will be 6.2% annually over the next decade, creating more jobs and increasing tourism directly of about 2% per year until 2025 .
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